Global music copyright value hits record $47.2bn as growth slows

The figure, published by Page on his Pivotal Economics platform, represents a 5.2% increase, or $2.3 billion, on the previous year. Page, a former chief economist at Spotify and UK collection society PRS for Music, said the easing growth reflects the disappearance of exceptional pandemic-related gains.

Recorded music accounted for the largest share of copyright value at $29 billion, or 61% of the total, up 5% year on year. Revenues collected by collective management organisations (CMOs) rose 8% to $13.6 billion, while direct publisher income fell 1% to $4.6 billion. Overall, music compositions generated 39% of global copyright value.

The new total represents almost a doubling over the past decade. In 2014, Page estimated the global value of music copyright at $25 billion. Since then, recorded music revenues have doubled, CMO income has grown by 50%, and publishers’ direct revenues have increased by 112%.

Page attributed much of the long-term growth to streaming and to what he describes as “glocalisation”, a shift in which domestic markets increasingly retain more of the value they generate. “The glocalisation of the value of copyright reminds us that the big figure that is calculated each year is being allocated across markets differently,” he wrote.

The report highlights markets such as Denmark, South Korea and Brazil, where local artists dominate domestic charts. In Denmark, for example, 16 of the top 20 albums last year were by Danish artists performing in Danish. Page argued that streaming has enabled domestic prominence in a way that traditional broadcast systems did not.

Brazil was cited as the most striking example. Page noted that the country’s YouTube top 100 artists chart features almost exclusively Portuguese-language acts, yet local demand alone has been sufficient to push Brazilian artists into global rankings.

Roni Maltz Bin, chief executive of Brazilian company Grupo Sua Música, said domestic scale can now translate directly into global chart success. “Natanzinho Lima debuted in the same week as Bad Bunny and still reached number four on the Spotify Global chart with 98.3% of all streams coming from Brazil,” he said. “This shows the strength of the Brazilian market.”

The report also examined the growing influence of K-pop in Japan, where 14 of the top 100 artists are now classified under the genre. Page suggested the distinction between K-pop and Japanese pop is becoming increasingly blurred, raising questions about how genres are defined in an era of cross-border consumption.

Looking ahead, Page warned that artificial intelligence could have uneven effects across the industry. While consumer-facing AI tools may generate new revenue, he cautioned that production music and other business-to-business segments could see value eroded. “The impact of AI may be asymmetric,” he wrote.

The analysis also pointed to gaps in how global music revenues are measured. Page estimated that hundreds of millions of dollars in copyright value remain unaccounted for, particularly in markets such as China, where publishing revenues are not fully captured in international industry reports.

“Global needs to mean global,” Page wrote, arguing that broader and more accurate measurement could significantly increase the reported value of music copyright worldwide.